⚡ Quick Summary
- Elo rating = A number representing a wrestler's skill level
- Starting rating = 1500 (average)
- Win = Gain points • Lose = Lose points
- Beat someone higher rated = Gain MORE points
- Lose to someone lower rated = Lose MORE points
What is Elo?
The Elo rating system was invented by Hungarian-American physicist Arpad Elo in the 1960s to rank chess players. It's since been adopted by virtually every competitive activity—from video games to tennis to, yes, wrestling.
The core idea is simple: your rating reflects your skill level, and it changes based on your results against other rated competitors.
Why Elo Works
- ✓Self-correcting: Beat good opponents and rise; lose to weak ones and fall
- ✓Predictive: The difference in ratings predicts win probability
- ✓Fair: Quality of competition matters, not just win count
- ✓Comparable: A 1700 in one division means the same as 1700 in another
How It Works
Every wrestler starts with a rating of 1500. After each match, points transfer from the loser to the winner. The amount transferred depends on the expected outcome.
Example: Expected Win
B loses -8 points
Example: Upset!
A loses -24 points
The Key Insight
Upsets cause big rating swings. Expected results cause small ones. This is what makes Elo self-correcting—if you're underrated, you'll gain lots of points by beating higher-rated opponents. If you're overrated, you'll lose points quickly.
MatMetrics Wrestling Adaptations
Pure Elo was designed for chess, where there are only wins, losses, and draws. Wrestling is more nuanced, so we've made some adaptations:
🏆 Bonus for Dominant Wins
Pins, tech falls, and major decisions earn slightly more Elo than close decisions. A 15-0 tech fall shows more dominance than a 3-2 decision.
⚖️ Weight Class Context
We calculate ratings within the context of competition level. A 1600 rating at 145 lbs in Arkansas means roughly the same skill level as a 1600 at 160 lbs in Oklahoma.
📈 K-Factor Adjustments
The "K-factor" determines how much ratings change per match. New wrestlers have higher K-factors (ratings move faster), while established wrestlers have lower ones (more stable).
🚫 Forfeits Excluded
Forfeits, defaults, and byes don't affect Elo ratings. These aren't competitive results and would skew the data.
Reading Your Rating
Here's what different Elo ranges generally mean:
| Rating | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 2000+ | Elite | State champion caliber, nationally competitive |
| 1800-1999 | Excellent | State placer, top of weight class |
| 1600-1799 | Strong | Competitive varsity, regional contender |
| 1400-1599 | Average | Solid competitor, wins some/loses some |
| 1200-1399 | Developing | Building skills, limited experience |
| <1200 | Beginner | New to competition, learning fundamentals |
⚠️ Important: These are guidelines, not guarantees. A 1600-rated wrestler can absolutely beat a 1750 on any given day. Elo measures probability, not certainty.
Using Elo for Predictions
The beauty of Elo is that rating differences directly translate to win probabilities. This is exactly how MatchIQ works.
Rating Difference → Win Probability
MatchIQ combines Elo ratings with other factors like archetypes, head-to-head history, and recent form to generate even more accurate predictions.
Limitations of Elo
Elo is powerful, but it's not perfect. Here are some things to keep in mind:
Doesn't Account for Injuries
A wrestler returning from injury might have a rating that doesn't reflect their current condition.
New Wrestlers Have Volatile Ratings
With only a few matches, a wrestler's rating can swing wildly. It takes 10-15 matches for ratings to stabilize.
Style Matchups Matter
A Scrambler might consistently beat Technical wrestlers but lose to Grinders, regardless of ratings. Elo doesn't capture this—but archetypes do!
Historical, Not Predictive of Growth
Elo reflects past performance. It doesn't know that a freshman will improve dramatically over the season.